Mosaic Finance
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US Treasuries · Credit · Inflation · Volatility · Live ETF tape + FRED end-of-day yields
Treasury yields plotted from 1-month to 30-year. Normal shape: long yields > short yields (upward sloping). Inverted (long below short) has preceded every US recession since 1955. The 2s10s and 3m10y spreads are the most-watched recession signals.
Option-Adjusted Spread = extra yield corporate bonds pay over Treasuries. Wide spreads = market pricing default risk; tight spreads = risk-on. HY OAS > IG OAS always. Sharp HY widening often leads equity selloffs.
10Y nominal yield − 10Y real (TIPS) yield = market-implied average CPI over the next 10 years. Above 2.5% → inflation worries; below 2% → disinflation / deflation fears. Fed targets ~2%.
Treasury yield stripped of inflation. Rising real yields tighten financial conditions: bad for growth stocks, gold, EM. Negative real yields = saver gets paid less than inflation; pushes risk assets up.
BIL = cash. SHY (1-3Y) = short duration. IEF (7-10Y) = belly. TLT (20+Y) = long duration, most rate-sensitive. AGG = whole IG bond market. TLT up, equities down often = flight-to-safety.
LQD = investment grade corp. HYG/JNK = junk bonds (high yield). EMB = emerging market USD debt. MBB = mortgage-backed. TIP = inflation-linked Treasuries.
"VIX for bonds" — implied vol of Treasury options. >120 = stress (think SVB Mar 2023). Below 80 = calm. Spikes precede credit dislocations and big moves in rates.
Rising yields → discount rate up → growth stocks compress (long duration equities). Inverted curve → bank net interest margin shrinks. Wide credit spreads → refinancing stress for low-quality balance sheets. MOVE spike → cross-asset volatility incoming.